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Notes from a small island

April 24th, 2008

maurituis_flag.jpgLast week I was in Mauritius, happily after its cyclone season which has been particularly bad this year.

Some Mauritians complain that nobody pays any attention to them. This is probably true, because the island – known for high end tourism – is so successful. It is prosperous, and has particularly excellent business and investment links with China and India. Community relationships are by and large good.

This week the Mauritian Prime Minister has hosted a South African Development Community conference on poverty. Nevertheless, despite being members of SADC and the African Union, they are quite detached from events in Africa. Yet between Africa and Mauritius lies a huge, potentially rich, ecologically unique, but underdeveloped island, namely Madagascar. Mauritius has an independent judiciary, low taxation, property rights protection and transparent investment codes. Apart from these, Madagascar needs a radically improved infrastructure, and considerable investment – the potential is huge. Mauritius could definitely assist. It could act as a link to Europe and Asia. Given Mauritius’ food security concerns, a closer relationship could be mutually advantageous.

Now nowhere is without problems. The island’s textile industry faces intense competition, and sugar is destined to decline in importance. Also it would like to reclaim the Chagos Islands, including Diego Garcia, the site of a huge and strategically important US airbase. And of course, given the island’s high propensity to import food, cost increases for Mauritians for food and fuel are being keenly felt.

However the island has been extremely well led and has made all the right strategic decisions. The leadership is often Anglophile, and of course they belong to the Commonwealth.

Curiously enough, there is no All Party Parliamentary grouping for this remarkable little place, so I intend doing something about it. There is always a risk that a country gets noticed only when it is a problem, rather than a success, and Mauritius is indisputably a real post-independence success story.     

Flying the flag

April 23rd, 2008

ba.jpg Returning on Saturday evening to Heathrow, as we circled for about 15 minutes in the clouds, I reflected that every time I now return to the airport, stacking takes place. I wonder what the price of this congestion is, whether in fuel costs or environmental impact. Quite simply Heathrow cannot accommodate the sheer volume of flights. 

A matter of seconds before we touched down in the packed Boeing 747-400, we lurched upwards again, the landing having been aborted. Apparently the plane in front had not cleared the runway. When we did eventually land, we had to make our way to the terminal for some time, and had to cross an active runway as well. It really has become chaotic. 

I personally always try to fly British Airways, despite its recent bad press. I still laugh, however, at the ludicrous attempt of the airline to get into the post 1997 Labour election victory ‘Cool Britannia’ mode. Do you remember those hideous, confusing tail fins – no Union flag, oh so old fashioned! 

And afternoon tea, scones and cream, were abolished on transatlantic flights. How people hated it and what a terrible waste of money it was. Margaret Thatcher memorably tried to cover up a model of the new tail fin design. 

My children find the fads of the Sixties and Eighties hilarious. In retrospect they were, but so were those ridiculous years after 1997 when even highly intelligent and sceptical journalists were caught up in the New Labour, New Britain hysteria which engulfed the nation. Modernise, modernise was the great cry of the day; really meaningless weasel words in retrospect. 

Just as the tail fins were emblematic of the mood of the times, in retrospect all of it now just seems plain ridiculous. 

Doing the splits

April 22nd, 2008
brown2711_228x293.jpgHaving been around under the premiership of John Major, I know only too well how party disunity has the potential to damage a Government. It is then quite ominous to see the current state of the Labour Party, and what it bodes for the Party’s future.

Over recent weeks we have seen numerous divisions emerge within the Labour party. We saw  Labour MPs threatening to rebel over the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. Over the weekend, we witnessed six ministerial aides call for action to help low paid workers who are set to lose out through the 10p tax change.

The Prime Minister was even forced to interrupt his official visit to the US to speak by telephone to Angela Smith, parliamentary aide to the Treasury Chief Secretary, from the White House after she reportedly told colleagues she was set to quit.

There has been the leak of a secret file drawn up by Labour whips about a large number of rebels opposing the Government’s proposals to detain terror suspects for 42-days without charge. There has been senior Labour figures openly attacking one another in the press. And yesterday Kate Hoey at the last minute pulled out of a press conference at which she was supposedly about to back Boris Johnson as London Mayor.

It seems that calls from both Ed Balls and David Miliband for party unity have fallen on deaf ears. Yet the outside world has received the message loud and clear.

I have recently received numerous letters and have spoken to many constituents who fear the Government is out of touch and in disarray. History shows that voters do not look kindly on self indulgent party infighting.

However the 10p tax revolt goes well beyond the issue itself. Many Labour MPs believed that the departure of Tony Blair would see a new and coherent Brown vision manifest itself, more rooted in Labour thinking. However the disappointment at its total absence is clear, and they are dismayed.  

But even they are missing the point. Even if Gordon were to disappear in a puff of smoke, it is Labour itself which is in the dock. The party has run its course, and has nothing fresh to say to resolve the problems which beset contemporary British society, many of which of they themselves have created. 

It is then no suprise that William Hill, the bookmakers, yesterday announced that they have not taken even 10p on a Labour election victory since Labour MPs started to voice their concerns over the abolition of the 10p tax band.

When the wheels start falling off….

Something is very wrong

April 21st, 2008

cbr.gifRecesses give one a useful chance to talk to many constituents about what they are thinking. The economic downturn, the weakness of sterling, lower house prices and rising prices all add up to a Government which is past its sell by date. 

Business people want to know that the Conservatives understand the pressures on them. I tell them about Conservative Business Relations. Below is something I recently wrote for the Conservative Home website which I hope will give reassurance.

When Labour came into office, they sought to portray themselves as replacing the Conservatives as the natural party of business.  Indeed we witnessed sections of the business and financial community transfer their support to the Labour Party.  In the past, business contact with the Conservative Party had been seen by some to be too diffuse.  To remedy this, a major listening exercise, Conservative Business Relations, was initiated by David Cameron and constructed to dissect the actual nature and extent of the problem and its implications for our economy, productivity and job creation. 

More than a year ago a comprehensive and focussed programme was started to engage with business, actively chaired by Alan Lewis, a successful businessman. 

During this time, 20 seminars have been held in key sector areas with 150 Chief Executives and separately 150 trade association representatives, covering a range of areas from technology, media and telecommunications to consumer goods and retail. 

Members of Parliament with a specialised knowledge of these different business categories were appointed as parliamentary sector champions to participate in the seminars and to lend their personal experience to the process.     All the comments, all the policy ideas, have been meticulously fed through to the Party policy groups and relevant shadow teams.  The insights have at times been extraordinary, like the level of shoplifting and of physical attacks on staff which has become a feature of British retailing life, a mirror image of our contemporary society.    

Last month, David Cameron spoke to well over 100 of the CEOs who attended the sector discussions. He was very enthusiastically received. 

Conservative Business Relations has also been divided into eleven United Kingdom regions.  Self-starting business people have chaired the regional activities.  Major events have taken place all over the country. It is a central part of the 2008 strategy to strengthen the regional interface with business.  

Central to this has been Conservative City Circle, originally founded by Howard Flight, and co-chaired by Michael Spencer.  It has formed the base for a comprehensive and assiduous effort by George Osborne and his team to get to know the City.     Conservative City Future, chaired by a young lawyer Marcus Booth, was launched to involve the younger City generation, and has been very active, not least in providing important research work.  This has been led by a young City researcher, Manish Singh.    

Some of Britain’s most successful entrepreneurs now form part of George Osborne’s New Enterprise Council.  Recently Patrick Snowball, former Executive Chairman of Norwich Union, agreed to chair a task force examining incentives to green investment.  A review on reducing the burden of regulations, chaired by Sir David Arculus, has been set up by Alan Duncan.  His shadow ministerial team is busily looking at small business issues specifically. The Campaign for Enterprise, overseen by Brian Binley MP, highlights small business in the House of Commons.  Corporate Day at the Conservative Party conference has become a popular and informative event.    

For the first time the Party has built a structure dedicated to engaging with business and commerce, with the full support and encouragement of the Party leadership.  Of course, there are gaps to be filled and more consultation is needed, but the exercise has been invaluable in building contacts and a considerable depth of knowledge.  

There is a huge task ahead for an incoming Conservative government to dismantle the business unfriendly edifice which Gordon Brown has created.  However, there is a real determination to do so, with a much clearer understanding now of where action is most urgently required.  This will be foremost in the minds of David Cameron and George Osborne when, as growing numbers of business people hope, they take up residence in Downing Street after the next General Election.

Some April reflections

April 3rd, 2008

c.jpgWhen Harold Macmillan said “Events, dear boy, events” as the determining factor in politics, he was not perhaps entirely correct. 

Nobody could have forecast that Gordon Brown would turn out to be so indecisive, a reputation arising in part through his unwillingness to call an election last autumn. Equally, last summer Conservatives went through a rather wobbly period, but now David Cameron is looking more prime ministerial each day that passes. Poor Ming Campbell was replaced for being too old by Nick Clegg, who has been a disappointment, and whose recent utterances on his sexual score card are just embarrassing. When Boris Johnson began his London mayoral campaign, many wrote him off; nobody today is doing so. So much of the conventional wisdom in the past nine months or so has been turned on its head. 

Quite frankly this is a brilliant time to be a Conservative Member of Parliament. After years toiling in the wilderness of opposition, winning at the next General Election is in sight. The Party is full of ideas, energy and fresh thinking, and so many outside Parliament want to be part of this process.

We go into recess from today, so blogging will be suspended! 

Decisions, decisions

April 2nd, 2008

nato.pngThere have been frequent concerns expressed in Washington about the future of NATO, arising out of the short sighted and potentially dangerous unwillingness of many European NATO members to spend money on defence and/or deploy troops abroad. Rows over this have been brought to a head because of Afghanistan. 

Yet ironically there is a queue to join. France may well be reintegrated into the central command structure. This week in Bucharest, other countries will be seeking membership. Croatia seems the most likely candidate to be accepted; Greece may veto Macedonia’s application and Albania may be rejected in the backwash. 

Two countries, however, provide a flashpoint, namely Georgia and Ukraine. It is true that public opinion in both countries is divided on NATO accession, but the political elite is firmly in favour. Germany is the most hostile to their membership, curiously citing the view that the populations must overwhelmingly want it. This does not exactly correspond to their view of the role of the public in regard to the EU non-constitutional constitutional Lisbon Treaty! By contrast President Bush in Kyiv yesterday, strongly backs Ukraine. 

Recently the Ukrainian Foreign Minister was in London and got the impression that the British Government would support their candidacy. In February in a conversation in Kyiv with President Yushchenko, NATO relationship was high on his agenda. His belief is that Ukraine should be free to join, despite German antipathy and outright Russian hostility. 

Russia today, like Russia throughout much of its history, feels nervous about being surrounded, especially by Ukraine and Georgia as NATO members, with which it has such longstanding links. President Yuschenko has given the explicit assurance that no missile will be placed on Ukrainian soil. 

So we have as much disagreement over membership as we do deployment. The Ukrainians desperately want to show their independence from Russia. Of course Russia cannot have the power of veto over NATO membership, but do we wish further to antagonise Russia in its currently assertive mood? 

The core element of NATO’s mission has always been clear, namely mutual protection. Given the limits of NATO’s capabilities, can that central doctrine of mutual self defence apply so far east? 

Europeans like ourselves have been able to enjoy the military protection that the United States provides us through NATO. But NATO is now split over new members, and Afghanistan reflects the limits of its capabilities. 

For Britain, failure by the US in Iraq and Afghanistan could provoke a strengthened view across the Atlantic that US military protection in Europe should be reduced or curtailed. It has to be a core objective for us to keep the US militarily and strategically engaged. 

NATO leaders in Bucharest this week have some tough decisions to take, which could potentially impact our lives for decades to come. 

Muddled thinking

April 1st, 2008

artarabsummitap.jpgAttention in the Middle East has been focussed on the fighting in Basra and in Afghanistan, with an increasing nervousness about the outcome in both countries.

Arab countries have been making their own judgments on how long the United States will want to remain militarily engaged in the region. With varying degrees of fear and resignation, they look at Iran as the one major regional power emerging out of the invasion of Iraq. Some wish to accommodate Iran , others are more hostile.

At the weekend an Arab summit took place in Damascus. 12 out of the 22 Arab League members sent heads of state to the conference, with Saudi Arabia and Egypt represented by minor officials, and a boycott by Lebanon. Some saw the hand of the United States in these snubs. 

However the Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak at the weekend echoed remarks by the Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, and called for a dialogue with Syria. At the same time the new UN Panel head investigating the assassination of Rafiq al- Hariri has curiously blamed a ‘crime network,’ whilst many Lebanese blame Syria for the death, as do others in the region. 

If we assume that the judgment of many Arab politicians is correct and that Iran will remain an assertive regional power, then what strategy should be deployed? If Syria is a conduit for arms to Hezbollah, and has influence on Hamas, then surely it should be a key objective to disengage Syria from its relationship with Iran. Boycotts and isolation certainly do not appear successful. Israel knows that the key objective of Syria is the return of the Golan Heights. 

Syria with over 1 million Iraqi refugees, many of whom are Christians, carries a considerable burden arising out of the Iraq invasion. It is a secular society and is violently opposed to Islamic fundamentalism. 

If Iran is the biggest twin challenge in the region, along with the interconnected Israel – Palestine conflict, then reducing its influence should be a priority. To the extent that there is a strategy to do this, it is currently confused and contradictory.  

Ultimately there can be no resolution of the region’s problems without Syria, warts and all. It is time to road test the constant offers by the Syrians of a formal dialogue. For Israel, less secure than ever before, what is the downside?

The smoke that thunders

March 31st, 2008

large_flag_of_zimbabwe.gifMichael Ancram as Shadow Foreign Secretary, and I as his deputy, very quietly visited Zimbabwe. It was a week before the final date of the white farmers having to leave their farms. On one particular farm, the owner’s son was about to become a father. I asked him what the baby’s name was going to be, and he laughingly replied Robert Gabriel. I admired his gutsiness. 

When the farmers were first told to leave, we raised this in Parliament because we knew what the economic consequences would be. It was obvious to us that the Government here did not remotely grasp the impending seriousness of the situation, and surveyed it all with a curiously misplaced ambiguity. Of course Britain could not be seen to lead the charge, as opposed to working energetically behind the scenes, but the Government have never at any stage tackled the Zimbabwe problem with sufficient drive or focus. 

So the economic implosion took place. We suggested to the South African government that they should respond much more aggressively. After all it was the old apartheid regime which brought down Ian Smith and his government by threatening to cut off power supplies. This was rejected, and South Africa has paid a huge price, with several million refugees. Their quiet diplomacy simply did not work. However the Government here would not be critical either publicly or privately. Other neighbouring African leaders equally were reluctant to take on Mugabe despite fully understanding the disaster he wrought. 

There was a curious personal denouncement to my visit there. Two or three years ago journalists contacted me to find out whether I was paying for the children of a Zimbabwean Cabinet Minister to be educated here. It really was a bizarre idea, without any truth whatsoever. Where the allegations came from I never discovered. 

What has happened in Zimbabwe has been an unspeakable horror story. History will not be kind to those who failed to act before the situation there spun out of control. 

I cannot think of any historical parallel for the sheer magnitude of this tragedy which has so besmirched the reputation of Africa. Resurrecting Zimbabwe is going to be one of the most urgent tasks of the decade. 

What happened there really cannot ever be allowed to happen again. 

Mysterious entities

March 28th, 2008

ufo024.jpgLast weekend’s local press reported that sightings of UFOs in Suffolk were the tenth highest in the country. Regrettably I have not witnessed one of these events, though some years ago a UFO allegedly landed in the Rendlesham forest and was witnessed by both US service personnel and local residents. 

But ghosts are something else. When the children were small and having an afternoon sleep, very often we would hear the cries of a young child and its footsteps running along the upstairs passage. We would check – the children were definitely asleep – so there were no explanations. The Czech au pair had hysterics one day when the light switch in the loo was inexplicably clicked off. Equally one afternoon a very loud single note on the piano downstairs was struck, again with no explanation. None of this really bothered us. Two other perfectly rational people I know have had rather more direct ghostly experiences, and they are not exactly excitable people. 

But back to UFOs. On holiday once in the United States, white-water rafting in the Rockies, a commercial airline pilot and I got talking about this. He had been in the USAF and was something of a cool cat. So I was surprised when he said whilst flying a F-111 he and the co-pilot were visited by a UFO. He said that he never normally talked about it because he thought nobody would believe him. I don’t think he was having me on. 

The vast majority of people sensibly do not exactly go around thinking about UFOs and ghosts. I certainly do not, but there is something rather engaging about the fact that some people do. 

Hands across the Channel

March 27th, 2008

flags.jpg

As a student, I decided to improve my French and spent six weeks at a language course at the University of Aix-en-Provence. This is because I had signed up to a student exchange programme, working in Paris for Banque Nationale de Paris, having given an assurance that my French was good.

My arrival in Paris had two surprises. Firstly I was housed in a former maid’s room at the top of a block of flats, with no bath or shower, and only a basin with cold water. Secondly a personnel manager at BNP interviewed me. He was something of a caricature – a cigarette dribbling from his mouth and with a very Parisian accent, which was hugely difficult to understand. He surveyed me rather sceptically.

However, my time at BNP was most enjoyable. Contrary to the reputation of Parisians, the staff were extraordinarily kind and friendly. A further difficulty was the requirement to sit a written banking exam. Miraculously I passed, to the encouraging cheers of the 30 or so BNP employees doing the course. Happily I was able to move flats and had some idyllic weekends in Normandy, Burgundy and the Loire valley.

Yesterday I listened to President Sarkozy who really is trying to form a good relationship with this country. Of course France single-mindedly pursues its national self-interest in a way which makes us look amateurish. Whether it is setting the agenda in the EU, its defence of its agriculture, or the way French government and business unite to pursue the country’s industrial and commercial objectives, it is remarkable for a country whose culture and language has become much less important in the past few decades.

Lady Mosley, who for obvious reasons left England after the war, once said that everything desirable in life was French – wonderful food and wine, scent and silk.

I think a lot of British people, however grudgingly, might just agree -  even if only in part.