A paler shade of Orange
Friday, June 13th, 2008
Was it deja vu all over again? Those of us who were here in the 1992-1997 Parliament, when John Major had a tiny majority, remember how sensitive our dealings were with the Unionist MPs. As it happens I was a Parliamentary Private Secretary to the then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.
John Major, Paddy Mayhew and Michael Ancram drove the political process on with real focus, despite considerable personal danger, and a whole series of known and unknown unknowns, as well as hideous bear traps.
However there was a big difference. The Unionist MPs by and large wanted to sustain the then Conservative government and recognised the valiant attempts, despite the setbacks and mistrust, to keep the peace process underway. Additionally they suspected Labour, fronted by Mo Mowlam, and looking at their voting record, of being too uncritical of Sinn Fein. However there was no specific pork barrelling for Parliamentary votes, not least because the Northern Ireland economy was in poor shape and Government spending was consequently high. The overall scale of the spending had nothing to do with votes in the Commons.
The votes of the Unionists this week drew comments of ‘we’ve seen this all before!’ However the difference now is that peace has essentially been restored., the Northern Ireland economy is doing hugely better, and there is green-orange power sharing. The Unionists have no interest in sustaining Labour in power in the way that they did for the Conservatives 15 years ago. Government spending in Northern Ireland remains high.
For the Unionists, we shall know in due course if they get even more funding for their pet causes. And they have the luxury of knowing that 42 day detention will be hit for six in the House of Lords, not only over the boundary, but over the grandstand too - unless they try very provocatively to use the Parliament Act.
All of this, I suspect, will have been at the heart of their calculations. And they also know that long term pragmatism in the Commons always wins out against short term anger and emotion. In passing therefore in the context of the David Davis by election, once upon a time the Liberal Democrats were trying to deliver their decapitation objective on him.
Putting aside the furore over 42 day detention, let us just remind ourselves how appallingly the PM prepared us for an economic downturn. How many hundreds of times did he imply that he had personally abolished the economic cycle in this country.
The offer by Mr Obama, however conditional, to talk to the axis of evil countries is indeed something of a departure. So change is in the air indeed. What the Bush Administration introduced was a new concept in diplomacy, namely you simply do not talk to countries you dislike.
Roads, like airports, provoke mixed emotions. A new road may destroy some precious green spaces. Yet congestion causes a negative environmental impact and is costly on time and stress. How also do you measure the cost of death and injury brought about by a dangerous road?