Richard Spring MP
Member of Parliament for West Suffolk

The 1970 election was won by the Conservatives against all the accepted wisdom. Harold Wilson was the calm and effective communicator, Ted Heath the unelectable Selsdon Man. Then in 1992 the Conservatives were due to lose. But against the odds and the conventional wisdom, a Conservative Government was re-elected.

In the United States, Hillary Clinton was written off in the New Hampshire primary. Two days ago we kept hearing erroneously how she was narrowing the gap in North Carolina and was well ahead in Indiana. We heard how disconsolate Barack Obama was, as blue-collar workers were deserting him. Now we know what was actually happening.

Electorates do sometimes spring surprises, despite the sophistication of psephologists. However this is not normally the case when the weather really changes, and when Governments run out of steam.

Now in Britain we may see the stirrings of economic revival in two years time, or we may not. It is a known unknown. However the extraordinary personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, and the fact that the problems of contemporary Britain are all too often products of Government failure itself, suggests that the weather – like this week – has changed. In their hearts this is what Labour MPs feel too. And even if the Sun poll this morning exaggerates the situation, it simply illustrates this fact, based upon what MPs’ constituents are telling them.

This really was the week that was.  

Nothing said more last week about a certain detachment from reality than the pre local elections Newsnight interview of my parliamentary colleague and our local government spokesman, Eric Pickles. He is very calm, professional, experienced and indeed very funny. Newsnight’s penetrating insight into voters’ attitudes was a photograph of young Oxford undergraduates in tailcoats. The inference was that this would surely turn off voters. Well now we know otherwise. Eric pointed out that this simply represented an obsession of some journalists, and that quite rightly nobody ever raised any of this on the doorstep. 

There is something sad yet absolutely hilarious about the mindset of such journalists and programme directors, in the BBC and elsewhere. Nobody sane thinks that David Cameron is Leader of the Opposition because some great-uncle pulled some strings, or that George Osborne is Shadow Chancellor because of the recommendations of some mythical relation, or indeed that Boris became editor of the Spectator because his godfather had a quiet word with the proprietor. Yet presumably this is what some left wingers who inhabit our media somehow seriously think and believe that the electorate does, or should do so too. 

There is a rich irony in all of this. When Labour was last in office, with 98% taxation and a massive brain drain, social mobility was hugely impaired because of low economic growth and confiscatory taxes. It was Margaret Thatcher who actually unleashed a social revolution in this country, because people of talent were offered the opportunity to make something of their lives and for their families. 

Today under Labour social mobility has actually declined in absolute terms, and relative to other advanced countries. 

So the next time a posse of left wing media types sip their lattes in some uber-chic minimalist central London watering hole, they might just reflect that the British electorate is grown up enough to elect their leaders on merit. And despite the massive increase in state spending, higher taxation and attempts at redistribution, real social mobility is actually in decline under Labour. 

This is yet another legacy of a failed and failing Government some of whose supporters view contemporary Britain through the prism of social attitudes now totally irrelevant to the British people when they cast their votes, as we saw last week. 

When Harold Macmillan said “Events, dear boy, events” as the determining factor in politics, he was not perhaps entirely correct. 

Nobody could have forecast that Gordon Brown would turn out to be so indecisive, a reputation arising in part through his unwillingness to call an election last autumn. Equally, last summer Conservatives went through a rather wobbly period, but now David Cameron is looking more prime ministerial each day that passes. Poor Ming Campbell was replaced for being too old by Nick Clegg, who has been a disappointment, and whose recent utterances on his sexual score card are just embarrassing. When Boris Johnson began his London mayoral campaign, many wrote him off; nobody today is doing so. So much of the conventional wisdom in the past nine months or so has been turned on its head. 

Quite frankly this is a brilliant time to be a Conservative Member of Parliament. After years toiling in the wilderness of opposition, winning at the next General Election is in sight. The Party is full of ideas, energy and fresh thinking, and so many outside Parliament want to be part of this process.

We go into recess from today, so blogging will be suspended! 

Despite the efforts (of course in the name of impartiality) of the BBC to bracket Peter Hain with senior Conservatives, it just doesn’t wash. All of us who have had to register an item have had at times had very un-specific advice. It is difficult to understand why both the Register of Members’ Interests and the Electoral Commission need to be informed with differing criteria. It would be simpler to have one register with clearly defined rules. 

I get an income from letting out a flat, and years ago set up a small trust for my children. There is absolutely no crystal clear advice as to whether to declare these, but erring on the side of caution – as advised – I did. It truly is difficult to understand what this has to do with my parliamentary obligations. Believe me there are significant grey areas. 

However in the  Peter Hain situation, it is a totally different kettle of fish. 

Two Labour MPs are busy trawling again, clearly in an orchestrated way. Last year they reported me for an alleged transgression. It was rubbish. If they really wanted to know the reality of the situation they could have easily asked me.  The reputation of the Government has been badly damaged. For this Government, the mud is now firmly sticking. Incompetence extends well beyond a single Cabinet Minister.

If you as a Member of Parliament talk to most Westminster journalists about what is being said in one’s constituency, a sort of glazed look very often descends. What happens within the M25 is reality, not outside. 

Towards the end of last week various commentators wrote about the problem of the Tories being stuck at 40% conveniently forgetting the dramatic move away from Labour only weeks before. However yesterday, surprise, surprise, a poll suggested that the Conservatives were up to 45%. 

The latest edition of the New Statesman had a leader entitled ‘After a traumatic start, is Brown starting to show courage?’ The answer is a definite ‘no.’ On Friday afternoon I went cycling with a police officer in a very rural part of my constituency. We went to a village primary school when the pupils were going home, so I had the chance to talk to parents and the head teacher. The school head made comments about Ed Balls’ ten year plan for young people that he would not have enjoyed hearing. 

Everywhere I went in West Suffolk people expressed their personal distaste for Gordon Brown, and his shambolic Government. Could anybody imagine a more ridiculous lack of judgment as Gordon Brown’s manoeuvrings over the EU treaty? If he wanted to avoid drawing attention to his signing the treaty, he dramatically achieved the reverse effect. He made himself look ridiculous to both the British people and his fellow European Prime Ministers and Presidents. Who is advising him? Whoever it is ought to be sacked. 

What I am trying to say is that on Friday I already knew what the weekend poll would show. I did not need a sophisticated poll to tell me.  If the adage is true that Governments lose elections, then barring something quite extraordinary, Gordon Brown is proving to be a major vote loser. Weak and indecisive, the word hologram springs to mind.

It is curious that when Members of Parliament discuss reactions on the doorstep, wherever they come from in most of England, it is as if there is an invisible hand, as the comments are so similar.

Whilst canvassing for this Thursday’s local elections, it was once again confirmed that Labour voters have a much diminished incentive to vote. What struck me this time, however, is how many of my constituents who normally vote Labour, wanted to discuss the current political scene. It was clear that it arose out of a belief that the Government is discredited, with Tony Blair held in contempt, and with no enthusiasm for Gordon Brown.

Now throughout the ages politicians have been held in varying degrees of suspicion or even contempt. The Blair government has elevated these emotions to new heights because of all the spin and unfulfilled promises. Would we be different? Are the Tories going to be just the same? They really wanted reassurance. Such is the way politics has been degraded under Labour.

I jokingly asked a Labour whip the day before the vote whether he had a knuckle-duster ready for use. He rather sardonically replied that it would take a bit more than that…..

The Liberal Democrats, all over the place and increasingly marginalised and irrelevant, argued that we had to wait until 2010 to decide, a view more to do with their own divisions. The overall majority was made possible by the Conservative vote, not a joyous moment for the Government. Labour MPs not only looked at the future of Trident per se, but also had the opportunity of giving the Prime Minister a bruising. Discipline within the party is breaking down as Labour MPs look beyond the Blair reign.

When the wheels begin to come off a Government, they continue to do so. If Gordon thinks he will restore calm, trust and discipline to his Party he has an unwelcome surprise ahead of him. The vote was simply another sign of more to come.

Last week a hugely amusing and enjoyable 50^th birthday party took place for Keith Vaz MP, so well known in particular in the Asian community, and latterly new best friend of Shilpa Shetty. The Lord Chancellor Charlie Falconer teased Keith (known sometimes as Vazeline) for being on the campaign teams of all seven candidates for the deputy leadership of the Labour party.

Perhaps it is now eight, since the Labour Chairman Hazel Blears announced her candidature. She has had to go on television repeatedly of late to explain the latest Government fiasco and to her credit she has looked cheerful and enthusiastic, no mean feat.

However, I have a certain experience to report. When the Government sought so obsessively to regionalise the police forces there was uproar in Suffolk as elsewhere. A group of MPs from Suffolk went to see her and all we heard about was Manchester and Salford. She had dragged in some toadying Chief Constable who told us how desirable it would be. The meeting showed she had no clue about life outside the big cities. But my biggest regret was not being able to tell the Uncle Tom policeman what I thought of him and the oleaginous drivel he spouted. Happily, the idea which Hazel and the Chief Constable were so eagerly promoting was dropped, and thank goodness for that. 

Rab Butler, the once nearly Prime Minister, used to say that he learned  most about the mood of the nation from the station master at Saffron Walden when he arrived in his constituency for the weekend. It is a worthwhile observation.

In 1997, such was the excitement and optimism surrounding the Labour victory, even in the most unlikely circles, that a perfectly rational businessman friend of mine told me that each morning he consequently felt cheerful and uplifted about the day ahead. The Blair honeymoon lasted so much longer than anybody could have imagined. Then the twinges of doubt appeared, then gradually disillusion, and then contempt. Needless to say, out of tact I never asked, but that morning spring in my friend’s step must have evaporated a long time ago.

I sense we are at a further stage. Anger and disappointment is being replaced.  It is actually becoming quite funny. Watching Government Ministers trying to spin their way out of the shambles in the Home Office, the NHS and in our foreign policy –  it is simply risible. Ministers talk as if they are inhabiting some disembodied sphere. When they justify themselves on the radio or television programmes audiences are beginning to laugh. Tony Blair’s performance on television yesterday was surreal.

It was good to have this pointed out to me as I was back in the real world of West Suffolk again. Barbara Windsor, Sid James, Hatti Jaques, Kenneth Williams – pity they aren’t making Carry On films any more – a new script is being written currently each and every passing day in Westminster and Whitehall.