Richard Spring MP
Member of Parliament for West Suffolk

The 1970 election was won by the Conservatives against all the accepted wisdom. Harold Wilson was the calm and effective communicator, Ted Heath the unelectable Selsdon Man. Then in 1992 the Conservatives were due to lose. But against the odds and the conventional wisdom, a Conservative Government was re-elected.

In the United States, Hillary Clinton was written off in the New Hampshire primary. Two days ago we kept hearing erroneously how she was narrowing the gap in North Carolina and was well ahead in Indiana. We heard how disconsolate Barack Obama was, as blue-collar workers were deserting him. Now we know what was actually happening.

Electorates do sometimes spring surprises, despite the sophistication of psephologists. However this is not normally the case when the weather really changes, and when Governments run out of steam.

Now in Britain we may see the stirrings of economic revival in two years time, or we may not. It is a known unknown. However the extraordinary personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, and the fact that the problems of contemporary Britain are all too often products of Government failure itself, suggests that the weather – like this week – has changed. In their hearts this is what Labour MPs feel too. And even if the Sun poll this morning exaggerates the situation, it simply illustrates this fact, based upon what MPs’ constituents are telling them.

This really was the week that was.  

On Wednesday there were some graphic photographs of tourists in the rock pool literally on the edge of Victoria Falls. On the one hand it brought back personal memories, but as the week ends, for some reason I keep thinking about Gordon. 

Some years ago, after a lunch on a small island very close to the waterfall’s edge, my son and I set off for the pool. It involved swimming against some quite strong currents, over some slippery rocks, and then into the deep safety of the pool, literally overlooking the waterfall. 

I cannot say that I hugely enjoyed it, either at the time or in retrospect, although I am not aware that anybody has ever been swept over the edge. However my status as an intrepid father did improve somewhat. 

As to Gordon, it seems impossible that it could get worse…… except that we have local elections next week, and of course the strong possibility of Mayor Boris. In the circumstances I have the feeling that if Gordon managed to make it to the pool, somehow he would lose his grip and be swept over the side. Perhaps he might even have the temptation, no doubt quickly dismissed, of jumping before he gets pushed.   

I once read somewhere that we males have inferior brain capacity compared with females. In other words, men can concentrate on only one or two issues at hand, whereas women can successfully absorb many more.

It may explain the Prime Minister’s brain. He was a very dominant and focused Chancellor of the Exchequer, a view widely held even by those who disagreed with his policies. George Osborne was considered brave to take him on.

The words dominant and focused could not now be applied to him as Prime Minister. The chaotic muddle surrounding the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill says it all. On Friday we heard Health Minister Ben Bradshaw on the radio backing the Bill with no qualifications. It took a few senior Roman Catholic clerics in the next 36 hours to get Health Secretary Alan Johnson to change tack. It now appears that Labour MPs may abstain but not vote against the Bill, so we have moved on, sort of… 

It is truly astonishing that the Prime Minister did not see the religious reactions inevitably coming. Now, having taken a robust stance in defence of the Bill, there appears to be some wavering. It is bizarre to be challenging the parliamentary convention that MPs should be able to vote on ethical issues according to their consciences or religious views. 

So the impression is yet again being formed that the Prime Minister has lost his political touch, and is vacillating in consequence. 

He once paraded Margaret Thatcher outside 10 Downing Street, and praised her as a conviction politician. It is increasingly clear that it is not an apt description of him at all. 

Whether it has anything to do with male versus female brains is one thing, but whatever the reason, the shambles surrounding the Bill simply fortifies the view that Gordon Brown is rapidly losing the plot. It wasn’t meant to be like this, but assuredly it is. 

As Cilla Black would say “surprise, surprise.”  

On Saturday the heavens cleared and the sky was beautifully blue. It was an appropriate colour. We have a by-election this week for the town council in Haverhill, the largest town in my constituency. Sixteen of us went canvassing and delivering leaflets on Saturday morning.

Now metropolitan sophisticates may think this all rather amateurish and unscientific but I have developed a theory over the years that doorstep conversations are reflected in the polls 2-3 weeks later.

Admittedly we have a very well known candidate, a local GP practice manager, who has been leading the charge against budgetary cuts. A lifelong Labour voter, she joined the Conservatives in November, along with the only Labour county councillor left in my constituency.

I write this because the canvass was – as a Tory -  the very best I can ever remember including well before I arrived at Westminster.

Numerous households told us that they were now finished with Labour – “enough is enough”, “time for change” - while some comments about Gordon Brown could only have been made in public after the 9 o’clock watershed.

The Prime Minister has been talking about making long term decisions. Judging by the extraordinary reception we had on the doorstep on Saturday, the electorate is making - his relaunch notwithstanding- a long term decision about him, which carries with it a ring of finality.

If you as a Member of Parliament talk to most Westminster journalists about what is being said in one’s constituency, a sort of glazed look very often descends. What happens within the M25 is reality, not outside. 

Towards the end of last week various commentators wrote about the problem of the Tories being stuck at 40% conveniently forgetting the dramatic move away from Labour only weeks before. However yesterday, surprise, surprise, a poll suggested that the Conservatives were up to 45%. 

The latest edition of the New Statesman had a leader entitled ‘After a traumatic start, is Brown starting to show courage?’ The answer is a definite ‘no.’ On Friday afternoon I went cycling with a police officer in a very rural part of my constituency. We went to a village primary school when the pupils were going home, so I had the chance to talk to parents and the head teacher. The school head made comments about Ed Balls’ ten year plan for young people that he would not have enjoyed hearing. 

Everywhere I went in West Suffolk people expressed their personal distaste for Gordon Brown, and his shambolic Government. Could anybody imagine a more ridiculous lack of judgment as Gordon Brown’s manoeuvrings over the EU treaty? If he wanted to avoid drawing attention to his signing the treaty, he dramatically achieved the reverse effect. He made himself look ridiculous to both the British people and his fellow European Prime Ministers and Presidents. Who is advising him? Whoever it is ought to be sacked. 

What I am trying to say is that on Friday I already knew what the weekend poll would show. I did not need a sophisticated poll to tell me.  If the adage is true that Governments lose elections, then barring something quite extraordinary, Gordon Brown is proving to be a major vote loser. Weak and indecisive, the word hologram springs to mind.

During my first Parliament (1992-1997) which were indeed unhappy times for any Conservative MP, the former Cabinet Minister Ken Baker, once said to me, “It isn’t always like this - it will get better.” It did not. 

Yet although we realised we would lose, the dramatic extent of Labour’s victory was never expected. Contrary to what the public may have thought, Conservative MPs were not running around like headless chickens. There was more gallows humour than panic. Today it is as if many current Labour MPs have seen a ghost - as if they cannot believe what is happening to them.

Tony Blair had that remarkable ability to wriggle out of difficulties and at the dispatch box was always quick witted and often funny. Whenever, he had problems, Gordon Brown disappeared - he has been likened to Macavity the cat.  Obviously, we concluded, that it is because he wanted to weaken Tony Blair, but also – we concluded – because he had some cleverly worked out different view or policy. We were wrong.  It is now apparent that he has very limited views indeed, nothing fresh to say. Into this vacuum, everything negative is pouring each day. I wonder how many Labour MPs would now subscribe to the expression  in Suffolk; “the last vicar was the best vicar.” Would Labour be in such a crisis if Tony Blair were still in charge? I think not. 

And things, dear brothers and sisters, can (and will) only get worse…