Richard Spring MP
Member of Parliament for West Suffolk

The 1970 election was won by the Conservatives against all the accepted wisdom. Harold Wilson was the calm and effective communicator, Ted Heath the unelectable Selsdon Man. Then in 1992 the Conservatives were due to lose. But against the odds and the conventional wisdom, a Conservative Government was re-elected.

In the United States, Hillary Clinton was written off in the New Hampshire primary. Two days ago we kept hearing erroneously how she was narrowing the gap in North Carolina and was well ahead in Indiana. We heard how disconsolate Barack Obama was, as blue-collar workers were deserting him. Now we know what was actually happening.

Electorates do sometimes spring surprises, despite the sophistication of psephologists. However this is not normally the case when the weather really changes, and when Governments run out of steam.

Now in Britain we may see the stirrings of economic revival in two years time, or we may not. It is a known unknown. However the extraordinary personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, and the fact that the problems of contemporary Britain are all too often products of Government failure itself, suggests that the weather – like this week – has changed. In their hearts this is what Labour MPs feel too. And even if the Sun poll this morning exaggerates the situation, it simply illustrates this fact, based upon what MPs’ constituents are telling them.

This really was the week that was.  

When Harold Macmillan said “Events, dear boy, events” as the determining factor in politics, he was not perhaps entirely correct. 

Nobody could have forecast that Gordon Brown would turn out to be so indecisive, a reputation arising in part through his unwillingness to call an election last autumn. Equally, last summer Conservatives went through a rather wobbly period, but now David Cameron is looking more prime ministerial each day that passes. Poor Ming Campbell was replaced for being too old by Nick Clegg, who has been a disappointment, and whose recent utterances on his sexual score card are just embarrassing. When Boris Johnson began his London mayoral campaign, many wrote him off; nobody today is doing so. So much of the conventional wisdom in the past nine months or so has been turned on its head. 

Quite frankly this is a brilliant time to be a Conservative Member of Parliament. After years toiling in the wilderness of opposition, winning at the next General Election is in sight. The Party is full of ideas, energy and fresh thinking, and so many outside Parliament want to be part of this process.

We go into recess from today, so blogging will be suspended! 

On Saturday the heavens cleared and the sky was beautifully blue. It was an appropriate colour. We have a by-election this week for the town council in Haverhill, the largest town in my constituency. Sixteen of us went canvassing and delivering leaflets on Saturday morning.

Now metropolitan sophisticates may think this all rather amateurish and unscientific but I have developed a theory over the years that doorstep conversations are reflected in the polls 2-3 weeks later.

Admittedly we have a very well known candidate, a local GP practice manager, who has been leading the charge against budgetary cuts. A lifelong Labour voter, she joined the Conservatives in November, along with the only Labour county councillor left in my constituency.

I write this because the canvass was – as a Tory -  the very best I can ever remember including well before I arrived at Westminster.

Numerous households told us that they were now finished with Labour – “enough is enough”, “time for change” - while some comments about Gordon Brown could only have been made in public after the 9 o’clock watershed.

The Prime Minister has been talking about making long term decisions. Judging by the extraordinary reception we had on the doorstep on Saturday, the electorate is making - his relaunch notwithstanding- a long term decision about him, which carries with it a ring of finality.

On Friday two prominent individuals, lifelong Labour supporters in my constituency, joined the Conservative Party. 

One is a Labour county councillor —Phillip French—who is chairman of the local Royal British Legion, and is very well known in the community. He cited the way the Government treats the armed forces, the terrible state of the NHS in Suffolk (almost continuously on black alert) and the refusal to offer a referendum on the EU Reform Treaty, amongst a series of broken electoral promises. I now have no Labour district or county councillors in my constituency, a dramatic change in the past few years. 

Ann Sisson is the practice manager for a group of GPs in Haverhill, and has led the charge against budgetary cuts. She has seen the terrible bureaucratisation of the NHS at first hand. She is so fed up that she now wants to stand as a local Tory councillor. 

Changing party is a serious step - it is well beyond simply changing one’s choice of supermarket. Both separately made this decision after much reflection and unhappiness. They believe Labour has failed in Government, and with David Cameron as leader, the Conservative Party has changed. 

They will be a most welcome addition to the Conservative team in West Suffolk. Already my Liberal Democrat opponent twice over in the General Election campaign has joined us. I suspect that there will be many more to follow.     

It was inevitable that there would have to be changes to David Cameron’s team because of the new or modified departmental arrangements introduced by the new Prime Minister.

It is particularly pleasing that William Hague and George Osborne have expanded roles. William is a tremendous orator and his speech yesterday on foreign affairs (http://www.globalstrategyforum.org/articleshow.asp?ref=30) is incomparably better than any Foreign Secretary’s in the 10 years of this Government. Party members have real affection for him. I see something of George Osborne through my activities in the City for the Party – he has become a considerable figure who stood up most effectively to Gordon Brown. I have seen how very competently he discusses his brief in large groups and small.

The new Prime Minister is having something of a honeymoon at present. It will not last. Both William Hague and George Osborne are formidable politicians who “get” politics. In due course they will make first rate Cabinet Ministers of the highest rank.

And as for the use of all the talents, as we observe individuals like Sayeeda Warsi and Pauline Neville Jones sitting in on the Shadow Cabinet, it really is a case of roll over Gordon.

At first the results that came through on Thursday evening suggested a less fulsome result for the Conservatives. 24 hours later there was a different reality as the extent of the Conservative tide became very evident.

In my constituency, we now have no Labour councillors whatsoever. Some of them, popular and long serving, simply could not grasp the fate that had befallen them. The idea that the results were a perfect springboard to a Labour general election victory is palpable nonsense. And Liberal Democrats in many instances will now realise that they are increasingly irrelevant in a two horse race. After Thursday, Conservatives will now have an even stronger sense of purpose and of ambition.

Seeing footage of the events surrounding the Falklands War 25 years ago, the sheer magnitude of the personality of Margaret Thatcher shines through.  She never wavered.  It was also reflected in domestic policy when she drove through trade union and tax reforms, and privatisations, which previously had been thought to have been impossible.

Last week my parliamentary colleague Gerald Howarth asked a few of us to have a cup of coffee with her.  She has not been too well lately, but she wanted to talk and hear about a whole range of current issues.  Of course she was at times a divisive figure but as has been said you have to break eggs to make an omelette.  One of my regrets is that I was not in parliament when she was.  She really is one of the great figures of our long political history. 

It would be absurd to say that Conservative MPs were anything other than cheerful at the moment; the Budget has not exactly electrified the electorate.

Last night Alan Duncan, the perfectly formed Shadow Secretary of State for Trade and Industry, had an enormous 50^th birthday party. Margaret Thatcher came, William Hague was his usual and funny speaking self, and Rory Bremner came to imitate Tony Blair, Gordon Brown and other politicians who were not present.

Afterwards we all went to a dinner at which Michael Heseltine spoke. I well remember how brilliantly he lifted spirits in the House of Commons when we were in Government, and in a similar state in which Labour now find themselves. He amusingly gave us some sound advice on being in opposition.

The will to win is back. Nobody is being remotely triumphalist – there is still a long way to go. However I can think of no time in my fifteen years as a Member of Parliament when Conservative MPs have been in better spirits.

Spring is in the air for the Conservative Party and it shows in all sorts of different ways. Conservative Future is attracting vastly increased interest on university campuses – many younger people now want to be involved in politics, and eventually to become Members of Parliament.

Last night, under the auspices of the Conservative City Circle ,a party was held at the solicitors S J Berwin in their beautiful building overlooking the Thames. It was for young City professionals, including many lawyers. It was sponsored by Jonathan Djanogly, the Shadow Solicitor General, who is associated with S J Berwin. It was addressed by Dominic Grieve, Shadow Attorney General, twice in a row Channel 4 Opposition Politician of the Year. Everybody thoroughly enjoyed themselves.

Interestingly enough, much of the conversation was less about today’s Budget, but about the rise in the Conservative Party’s fortunes, and how the process could be enhanced. It was simply another sign of those tectonic plates moving politically, and it bodes well for a Tory future.

Yesterday an extraordinarily successful conference on green growth took place in London opened by George Osborne and at which David Cameron spoke. It is he in particular who has driven on the green debate in political circles.

The line up of speakers was impressive – Sir Terry Leahy of Tesco,, Stanley Fink of Man Group, Eddie O’ Connor of Airtricity and James Murdoch of BSkyB. All in their different ways are promoting a green agenda in their businesses, and responding to market forces. We now need to look at problem areas like regulation, taxation, planning and requisite skills – how government nationally and locally interact, and then in turn do so with business.

Canvassing at the weekend revealed how really dismissive Labour supporters are of this Government. It may be that it is Governments that lose elections, but an Opposition can make it easier. By capturing the green initiative David Cameron has not only changed the profile of the Conservative Party, but actively raised public awareness of one of the great challenges of our times.