Richard Spring MP
Member of Parliament for West Suffolk

The 1970 election was won by the Conservatives against all the accepted wisdom. Harold Wilson was the calm and effective communicator, Ted Heath the unelectable Selsdon Man. Then in 1992 the Conservatives were due to lose. But against the odds and the conventional wisdom, a Conservative Government was re-elected.

In the United States, Hillary Clinton was written off in the New Hampshire primary. Two days ago we kept hearing erroneously how she was narrowing the gap in North Carolina and was well ahead in Indiana. We heard how disconsolate Barack Obama was, as blue-collar workers were deserting him. Now we know what was actually happening.

Electorates do sometimes spring surprises, despite the sophistication of psephologists. However this is not normally the case when the weather really changes, and when Governments run out of steam.

Now in Britain we may see the stirrings of economic revival in two years time, or we may not. It is a known unknown. However the extraordinary personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, and the fact that the problems of contemporary Britain are all too often products of Government failure itself, suggests that the weather – like this week – has changed. In their hearts this is what Labour MPs feel too. And even if the Sun poll this morning exaggerates the situation, it simply illustrates this fact, based upon what MPs’ constituents are telling them.

This really was the week that was.  

Hillary Clinton has bounced back in a wholly unexpected way but according to Dick Morris the political commentator and author, with whom I had breakfast this morning, Barack Obama will win. He believes the combination of the Democratic popular vote and number of delegates will inevitably secure this. 

He believes that Obama has been a brilliant candidate in refusing, for example, to take money from special interests, and attracting a wide range of individual financial contributors via the internet. He has through his age and attitudes touched a core with the younger generation and those who have felt disconnected from American political influence. So the traditional low turnout at the Presidential elections will be higher. Also, he believes that the Republican mission on lower taxes, lower crime and lower welfare rolls has been fulfilled. What remains in areas like health, education, transport and social care, are issues where the Democrats, for good or for ill, have something fresh to say. 

If he is right, therefore, we will be looking forward to having to deal with President Obama in the White House, after a landslide victory. 

Of course this will have implications for our relationship with the United States which by common consent is not widely popular in many parts of the world. It is crucial for us to be close to the policy development process in international affairs with any new President, to the extent that this is possible. We have moved from appearing to be slavish towards the United States, to now having a too cool relationship. 

It is an unfortunate legacy of Labour in government.     

Sitting in the Members’ tea room yesterday, a group of us were discussing who could fill the House of Commons today with the power of his or her oratory. 

Well before my time, Enoch Powell could do so. Michael Foot was clearly remarkable, as was Tony Benn in his own way. The most outstanding current orator is undoubtedly William Hague who again dissected the European non-Constitution Constitution so brilliantly yesterday. Also, some of Tony Blair’s speeches in the chamber were very memorable performances. 

The power of Barack Obama’s oratory is exceptional. He is a brilliant wordsmith, being able to inspire with the power of language. People respond to a sense of hope and optimism – something that David Cameron has also brilliantly captured. 

There is little difference in policy terms between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But somehow I suspect that if he does emerge as a Presidential candidate, and wins, it will be because he has been able to breathe life into the over used word ‘change,’ creating a sense of excitement which powerfully touches the emotions. 

As a footnote, poor old Gordon Brown – no orator he - must feel that nothing is going right. He must be ruing the day he declined the opportunity to meet Barack Obama.