Into the crystal ball
Monday, February 4th, 2008
Most commentators covering the US primaries suggest that whoever wins will want to engage with the outside world differently from the Bush Administration, and that in this pursuit they would have the support of most Americans.
We are at a difficult juncture. Mr Obama wants to withdraw US troops from Iraq as soon as possible, which may well be problematic if a constitutional re-balancing in Iraq has not by then taken place. However it is to Afghanistan that more and more attention is being paid. Many depressingly believe that the war against the Taliban is being lost; clearly relations between President Karzai and NATO are difficult. Whilst most commentators recognise the need to contain the Taliban, and destroy Al-Qaeda, the unwillingness of Europeans to engage militarily is both undermining NATO and causing concern in Washington.
However willing an incoming President might be to recalibrate relationships with allies, there has to be reciprocity. Afghanistan is something of a litmus test, and the omens are not good.
We should carefully consider the possible long term consequences. For all the strategic misjudgements of the Bush Administration, the US still has the political will to make military commitments. Most of our European neighbours do not. We should do well to recognise what a mirage a pan European defence capability actually would be. We simply have to keep any new US President engaged and involved; it is crucial to our own national security and self interest. This must be a cornerstone of our world view.