Archive for June, 2008

Weak, weak, weak

Monday, June 16th, 2008

euconsttreaty-image0.jpgIt is beyond absurdity for the Government to acknowledge that the Lisbon Treaty cannot now be adopted legally by the EU, but that we should ratify it anyway.

When the French and Dutch rejected the Constitutional treaty, Tony Blair, with Britain holding the EU Presidency, called for a period of reflection, and characteristically allowed the subsequent void to be filled by others. He had the opportunity to kill the Treaty, as Gordon Brown now has, and he in turn has flunked it too.

Yesterday David Miliband talked of the technical adjustments to deal with EU enlargement as if this was what the Treaty is all about. He talked nonsense about the Conservative position on the Nice Treaty. We were very happy to approve changes in the voting weighting in the Council of Ministers because of enlargement. We objected to other features like the Charter of Fundamental Rights, proclaimed on the sidelines of Nice, which of course – as we forecast – turned into a fully fledged judicial entity.

The Laeken Declaration in 2001 set the tone and asked the right questions about the future of the EU, the need for greater transparency, democratic accountability and institutional reform. At the time we pleaded with Tony Blair to set out a clear view of what the architecture of the EU in the 21st Century should be. He did nothing, and the whole process was hijacked, against the very spirit of Laeken, and the EU constitution emerged.

So we have a pattern in our EU relationship that we have domestically - a failure to act decisively on outstanding problems. Do you remember the Lisbon agenda, to make Europe the knowledge powerhouse of the world? Tony Blair set out a compelling vision, and then did virtually nothing to push the agenda, much to the amazement of our European neighbours.

Labour hides behind the assertion that the Tories are anti-European, but by their weak and flabby approach to the EU, always in the slipstream of others, the EU is now more distrusted and disliked in many parts of Europe. Labour has failed to address the democratic deficit in the true spirit of Laeken. The Irish vote said it all.

Now this week they are shilly – shallying again. It is against both our national interest and a modern, viable EU fit for purpose. No referendum here and no clear leadership. It is more than a lost opportunity. It is a disgrace.       

A paler shade of Orange

Friday, June 13th, 2008

redhand2.gifWas it deja vu all over again? Those of us who were here in the 1992-1997 Parliament, when John Major had a tiny majority, remember how sensitive our dealings were with the Unionist MPs. As it happens I was a Parliamentary Private Secretary to the then Secretary of State for Northern Ireland.

John Major, Paddy Mayhew and Michael Ancram drove the political process on with real focus, despite considerable personal danger, and a whole series of known and unknown unknowns, as well as hideous bear traps.

However there was a big difference. The Unionist MPs by and large wanted to sustain the then Conservative government and recognised the valiant attempts, despite the setbacks and mistrust, to keep the peace process underway. Additionally they suspected Labour, fronted by Mo Mowlam, and looking at their voting record, of being too uncritical of Sinn Fein. However there was no specific pork barrelling for Parliamentary votes, not least because the Northern Ireland economy was in poor shape and Government spending was consequently high. The overall scale of the spending had nothing to do with votes in the Commons.

The votes of the Unionists this week drew comments of ‘we’ve seen this all before!’ However the difference now is that peace has essentially been restored., the Northern Ireland economy is doing hugely better, and there is green-orange power sharing. The Unionists have no interest in sustaining Labour in power in the way that they did for the Conservatives 15 years ago. Government spending in Northern Ireland remains high.

For the Unionists, we shall know in due course if they get even more funding for their pet causes. And they have the luxury of knowing that 42 day detention will be hit for six in the House of Lords, not only over the boundary, but over the grandstand too - unless they try very provocatively to use the Parliament Act.

All of this, I suspect, will have been at the heart of their calculations. And they also know that long term pragmatism in the Commons always wins out against short term anger and emotion. In passing therefore in the context of the David Davis by election, once upon a time the Liberal Democrats were trying to deliver their decapitation objective on him.    

Boom and bust

Thursday, June 12th, 2008

swag.bmpPutting aside the furore over 42 day detention, let us just remind ourselves how appallingly the PM prepared us for an economic downturn. How many hundreds of times did he imply that he had personally abolished the economic cycle in this country. 

It is therefore richly ironic that the European Commission is to start disciplinary proceedings against Britain for breaching its rules, as set down in the EU Growth and Stability pact. Britain is the only European country to face such severe criticism this year. 

His fiscal laxity has been criticised now by virtually every reputable organisation and commentator, including the OECD. So at a time when many countries are attempting to help their citizens by cutting taxes, we are putting them up. The result of this is that the European Commission believes that the deficit will be growing over the next two years.

We have known for some time that Prudence and Gordon were having partnership difficulties. We had not realised that the divorce had actually come through.   

 

 

 

Another good sign for the Tories

Wednesday, June 11th, 2008

wh.jpgIt is interesting how people are gravitating towards the Conservative Party whatever their professional background. 

Last night, for example, 270 people gathered at the Banqueting House in Whitehall at the behest of the Conservative Middle East Council (CMEC). There was a considerable number of Ambassadors, MPs and others in attendance all there to listen to David Cameron and William Hague speak. 

Much of this is due to the hard work of the Chairman of CMEC, Crispin Blunt MP, but it also indicated how anxious many people are to be involved in Conservative Party events.  Whether in Israel or any of the Arab countries, there is a feeling of dismay at the lack of influence Britain has in the region, despite our historical links, and the deep knowledge this country has of the Middle East. 

It is interesting to note how the French are now beginning to be more involved in the region, in contrast to Britain. President Sarkozy will be in Damascus in September.  William Hague reiterated his view that the region is the most important, politically in the world. It is now up to the Conservative Party to get to know it. To his credit he has done so personally. 

Like everyone else in the country at the moment, those present last night yearn for a Conservative government that will have a much clearer strategy for Britain’s interests in the region and apply it in a much more coherent way. 

No more fundraiser/ special envoys either! 

Scraping the barrel

Tuesday, June 10th, 2008

42.jpgTomorrow, Members of Parliament will vote on the issue of 42-day detention. Whether Gordon Brown strings enough votes together to get the legislation passed or not, the Government’s political reputation has suffered badly because of it, and so has his. 

The legislation was designed as a political calculation to outflank the Conservatives and make the Prime Minister appear tough on security. Political self interest was at the core of the exercise. Yet it has now backfired. 

Faced with criticism from many quarters, and possible defeat, the Government has been offering potentially rebellious MPs concessions and compromises.  

Gordon Brown once had the reputation of being a master political strategist. That reputation is now in tatters as a new poll published today shows that Gordon Brown’s leadership standing has fallen dramatically. 

The electorate see the Prime Minister as a leader who has no big story to tell and is obsessed by short term gimmicks. Just look at the way he reacted to inheritance tax and the non-dom issue. It backfired royally. Extending pre-charge detention for terrorist suspects from 28 to 42 days is just another product of mere political calculation. It hasn’t worked. 

He may win tomorrow. But the central objective of trying to push the Conservatives into a corner has failed, and his moral authority has been yet again impaired.  

Neither fish nor fowl

Monday, June 9th, 2008

bbcnews_2003_alistair_a.jpgSurprisingly, MPs do not actually watch much television but many do watch programmes like Newsnight, Andrew Marr’s Sunday programme and Question Time. Radio 4’s Today Programme is compulsory listening in the mornings.

Because it is so widely viewed, I do try to watch the BBC six o’clock TV news from time to time, and did so on Thursday evening. The whole session was extraordinary. We started off with a long piece about an Englishman who is going on trial in the United States – for allegedly murdering his wife: pretty graphic stuff. Then we moved on to three Britons missing off the Bali coast whilst diving – happily all is well now and the subsequent story about toxic dragons was terrific . Then the third item was a tragic story of a young boy who had hanged himself because of the deaths of his mother and grandfather.

Now there were indeed all powerful and exceptional human interest stories. In presentational terms, however, it was the television equivalent of tabloid newspaper journalism.

This was on the same day, for example, when the news from Zimbabwe was really very grim indeed, yet it fell into fourth place.    

The BBC is entitled to put on popular viewing programmes, and it does. But surely, as a public service provider, the main evening news should be a serious exercise in prioritising what is really happening in the world we inhabit, whether here or abroad. After all, the BBC boasts a unique number of foreign correspondents, and they are of world-beating quality, as indeed are their commentators on the local political and economic scene.

Damascene conversions

Friday, June 6th, 2008

images.jpgThe offer by Mr Obama, however conditional, to talk to the axis of evil countries is indeed something of a departure.  So change is in the air indeed.  What the Bush Administration introduced was a new concept in diplomacy, namely you simply do not talk to countries you dislike. This considerably delayed a settlement with North Korea: in the end the Americans were forced to accept Chinese advice, and the rest is history.  The US attitude to Iran has been stop-start over the years in varying degrees, and is still an open question.

One by-product of the British Administration’s world view is its exceptional dislike of Syria.  Indeed it has been reported that the US vetoed Israel engaging in a dialogue with Syria.  US sanctions are operating against Syria too, which has made them more dependent on Iranian largesse.

Yet there appears to have been some movement, inasmuch as the Turks have brokered talks, and these have received the formal encouragement of the Syrian President.  Apparently the Americans, perhaps finally listening to James Baker, have modified their position.

If Israel, and indeed the United States, regard Iran as a menace in the region, then their central strategy should be to limit or cut off its influence.  Syria and Iran have a close relationship, and that involves support for Hezbollah.  So at minimum, Israel should try to distance secular Syria from theocratic Iran.

There may now be an opportunity.  The Lebanese political situation looks more stable and a dialogue between Israel and Syria has begun. Nevertheless, history teaches us to be cautious about being in any way optimistic.

What is clear in Damascus, where at least we carry no historical baggage, there is a real desire for us to resume a considered and focussed role in the Middle East.  Also for us to reassert our more traditional partnership with the United States.  There should be some reward and recognition for Syria being burdened with 1.5 million Iraqis.  They have received no humanitarian assistance.

The Iraq invasion has seen the Christian communities of Iraq decimated and scattered.  At least in Syria, an adjunct of the so called axis of evil, they are protected and cared for.  It is the ironic by-product of this whole tragic episode. 

Goring Gordon

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

800px-picador.jpgIf it was not that he is known as a very partisan and very politically ungenerous individual, I might have had just a fleeting tinge of feeling sorry for Gordon Brown at Prime Minister’s Questions yesterday.

It was simply horrible, porkies and all. In contrast to Tony Blair, the present incumbent is wooden and flat-footed. Now out there Prime Minister’s Questions may seem unpleasant and irrelevant to some, but it is a tribal experience, and it impacts the morale of MPs very considerably. The wretched expressions of Labour MPs, most especially the Cabinet, was a sight to behold. Jack Straw and Geoff Hoon, the Chief Whip, looked shaken.

Pressure and tension affect people in different ways. Margaret Thatcher looked energised by the demands of her job. David Cameron seems to have exactly the same quality.

Gordon Brown, by contrast, looks as if he has undergone an extraordinarily rendition experience. Yesterday was obviously torture for him, and it showed.   

And the one sided bullfight is set to continue week by week.

Rural gridlock

Wednesday, June 4th, 2008

a11.bmpRoads, like airports, provoke mixed emotions. A new road may destroy some precious green spaces. Yet congestion causes a negative environmental impact and is costly on time and stress. How also do you measure the cost of death and injury brought about by a dangerous road?

In West Suffolk, leading into Norfolk, is one of the most treacherous and congested roads in the country, the notorious A11. To dual it, and bypass the village of Elveden, would mean cutting through a man-made forest, with one landowner. By anybody’s standards, the planning and ecological impact is very low indeed.

For 30 years a plan has existed to resolve the problem of the A11. BBC2 actually put out a programme to illustrate dramatically its sheer awfulness. The incoming Labour government promised to act, and then just at the point we believed it would be built, it was moved to the East of England Regional Assembly (EERA) to prioritise this project.

There is no point in revisiting what happened next. However, following a meeting with the Transport Secretary, Ruth Kelly, there is a greater sense of understanding between EERA and the Department of Transport.

There are important hoops to get through and over £100 million would need to be found. But at least EERA understands now that it unequivocally has to back the scheme if it is to be realised.

Charles Clarke and I are hosting a meeting today to bring together all the local and regional stakeholders, to get our ducks in a row.

This is not a party political issue. When people lose their lives on the A11, as scores have, nobody asks whether they vote Labour or Conservative.

I have such a sense of personal disappointment as the local MP that the A11 has not been dualled yet. It is a disgrace. I can only hope today that our meeting really does move the matter forward.  

Getting down to business

Tuesday, June 3rd, 2008

header.gifThis afternoon we are holding a Conservative Business Relations seminar looking at environmental strategy and UK business. It is going to be hugely well attended. 

Yesterday George Osborne spoke at a City lunch with leading members of the accountancy profession. 

In businesses of all sizes and sorts, there is now a desperation to get rid of this Government. It is the sheer incompetence on top of the burdens of regulations and taxation which is causing this. 

But there is also a much greater realism. Of course they realise that we are increasingly uncompetitive, and that businesses continue to look abroad for a better environment. However they now realise how tied any new government will be, how restrained by the terrible fiscal legacy of this Government. Unravelling this will not be easy, and it cannot be done overnight, but they now appreciate how much more difficult it has become to achieve quickly the lower tax environment they all want. 

Meanwhile we are listening very carefully to what they have to say. Their comments would not exactly please Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling who have jointly created this unhappy situation, and burdensome future legacy.