Roosting chickens going headless
The 1970 election was won by the Conservatives against all the accepted wisdom. Harold Wilson was the calm and effective communicator, Ted Heath the unelectable Selsdon Man. Then in 1992 the Conservatives were due to lose. But against the odds and the conventional wisdom, a Conservative Government was re-elected.
In the United States, Hillary Clinton was written off in the New Hampshire primary. Two days ago we kept hearing erroneously how she was narrowing the gap in North Carolina and was well ahead in Indiana. We heard how disconsolate Barack Obama was, as blue-collar workers were deserting him. Now we know what was actually happening.
Electorates do sometimes spring surprises, despite the sophistication of psephologists. However this is not normally the case when the weather really changes, and when Governments run out of steam.
Now in Britain we may see the stirrings of economic revival in two years time, or we may not. It is a known unknown. However the extraordinary personal unpopularity of the Prime Minister, and the fact that the problems of contemporary Britain are all too often products of Government failure itself, suggests that the weather – like this week – has changed. In their hearts this is what Labour MPs feel too. And even if the Sun poll this morning exaggerates the situation, it simply illustrates this fact, based upon what MPs’ constituents are telling them.
This really was the week that was.