Presidential musings
Hillary Clinton has bounced back in a wholly unexpected way but according to Dick Morris the political commentator and author, with whom I had breakfast this morning, Barack Obama will win. He believes the combination of the Democratic popular vote and number of delegates will inevitably secure this.
He believes that Obama has been a brilliant candidate in refusing, for example, to take money from special interests, and attracting a wide range of individual financial contributors via the internet. He has through his age and attitudes touched a core with the younger generation and those who have felt disconnected from American political influence. So the traditional low turnout at the Presidential elections will be higher. Also, he believes that the Republican mission on lower taxes, lower crime and lower welfare rolls has been fulfilled. What remains in areas like health, education, transport and social care, are issues where the Democrats, for good or for ill, have something fresh to say.
If he is right, therefore, we will be looking forward to having to deal with President Obama in the White House, after a landslide victory.
Of course this will have implications for our relationship with the United States which by common consent is not widely popular in many parts of the world. It is crucial for us to be close to the policy development process in international affairs with any new President, to the extent that this is possible. We have moved from appearing to be slavish towards the United States, to now having a too cool relationship.
It is an unfortunate legacy of Labour in government.