Slavonic tensions
Both Russia and Ukraine have had elections in the past few months. Whilst Mr Medvedev won the Presidency decisively, Mrs Tymoshenko squeaked in, and her position as Prime Minister is fragile, and dependent on a tiny parliamentary majority. It is a difficult time there politically.
Ukraine wants to join the EU, but at the time of the Orange Revolution was not given a clear signal. Recently it signed up to the WTO, and a comprehensive free trade area is in prospect. Support for EU entry, which is not formally on offer, is universal in the political elite, if not in the general population. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s leadership wants to join NATO, which infuriates the Russians, who have historically regarded Ukraine as their backyard.
Gazprom, Russia’s gas monopoly has cut supplies to Ukraine by at least 25% allegedly because of outstanding debts, which Ukraine rejects. Most of Europe’s gas comes through Ukraine from Russia and countries like Turkmenistan and will be unaffected, we are assured.
Ukraine is a vast country of immense agricultural wealth, a veritable bread basket at a time of soaring prices. Its political and economic success could beneficially impact its less successful neighbours, like Belarus and Moldova.
Curiously enough Ukraine looks to Britain in many respects: there are perhaps 100,000 Ukrainians living here.
The British Ukrainian Society, of which I am chairman, is trying to build links at every level. Ukraine is a European country whose democratic underpinnings and economic success are in our interest too. The Foreign Office recognises this, as so the Opposition: David Cameron had a particularly good meeting with President Yushchenko at Davos.
However there is high political drama being played out currently in the halls of power in Kyiv. We hope this can all be amicably resolved, because the stakes are so high.